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Sunday, September 09, 2007

Not this again...

Well, we're back to this again where I become Callahan’s biggest defender on a fourth down playcall. What is so hard to understand? There was no doubt in my mind that we were going to go for it. Callahan is a gambler when it comes to fourth down. He is going to take a risk if he feels the payoff outweighs the potential costs of such a move. Perhaps he is familiar with the idea, presented once again for clarity by the Football Commentary folks that coaches punt way too often on fourth down, even when going for it would have been in their best interest.

The best their tables provide is the opponent’s 40-yard line with 3 minutes to go and a 3-point lead. Again we were on the 35 with 2 minutes to go. Anyway, the table tells us that Callahan should have believed the play would have a 60% probability of picking up the first down in order to come to the conclusion that we go for it rather than punt. So if he felt 6/10 times in that situation we pick up a first down – we go for it.

One more thing to consider we needed two yards for the first down. On fourth and two a year ago we went for it, and ran the ball twice. Both of those attempts led to first downs. Don’t think that Callahan isn’t aware of that success benchmark from 2006.

I know what you would have done in that situation. You would have punted. Callahan won’t. Just come to terms with that please people.