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Tuesday, September 25, 2007

More on Efficiency and a Response to a Comment

From the comments, Robert says:
"I can't say I'm much of a fan of these measures...I think it is questionable that certain teams are more likely to rack up yards and be unable to score on a consistent basis. They may do it over a period of time, but I question that it is good for predicting the future performance. I'll take the team that puts up the most yards."
The only reason I post these measures is that they have consistently been shown to be better predictors of success in both the NFL and college football.

A year ago in CFB, the most relevant offensive statistics in terms of winning percentage were:

1. Scoreability Index
2. Third Down Efficiency
3. Total Offense
4. Scoring Offense
5. Yds/Pass Attempt
6. Passing Efficiency
7. Rushing Offense
8. Fourth Down Efficiency
9. Passing Offense
10. Time of Possession

In addition, we are already seeing the same thing in terms of the Scoreabililty Index vs. Total Offense in 2007.

Right now teams that are in the Top 20 in the Scoreability Index have a combined record of 67-10 for a winning percentage of .863. Teams ranked in the Top 20 in total offense have a combined record of 61-16, or a winning percentage of just .788.

By saying, “I’ll take the team that puts up the most yards” – you’re going to be stuck with the likes of Louisville (#1 in total offense, 2-2 record), Tulsa, BYU, Minnesota, New Mexico State, Ball State, and Arkansas all of whom are ranked in the Top 20 in Total Offense.

Interestingly, none of those teams is currently ranked in the Top 20 in the Scoreability Index.

The strength of the Scoreability Index lies in the fact that it is influenced by other variables. This makes it a great barometer of team success. It is a function of many team-wide factors, including general offensive strength, defense and special teams proficiency, turnover differential and Red Zone offense.

Total offense on the other hand, means less as a stand alone variable. Just ask Steve Kragthorpe.