Last Week: 3-6 ATS
Season: 17-17-1 ATS
Fresh off an embarrassing week for us here at DXP, we had a collective group hug and decided that if the Channel 4 news team can do it, then so can we. These picks will surely put a trident through the chest of your bookies.
We here at DXP have taken our shots at Frank Solich. Have you read the latest news,however, out of Athens? No less than 17 Ohio football players have been arrested this year. And what was their punishment you ask? Well, apparently it was studying for 6 straight days in the football office for a first offense. Wow, I thought they were football players, not college students. Moreover, 4 of those players were recently convicted of offenses ranging from assault to DUI. You would think this win-at-all costs attitude would have resulted in more...you know, wins.T. Rose, Jeffie Husker, Sammy Vegas, and Dr. D prepare for battle.
But enough about the past, this is the present. These picks should wet the palate, and remember that the last time we had a losing week, I guaranteed we would go at least 6-3, the following week, which we did. We are expecting no worse than 5-3 this week. Enjoy.
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Air Force (-3) over Navy: Amazingly, Air Force has lost 3 straight games to Navy. Navy boasts the number one run offense in the country with 357 yards/game, and Air Force possesses the number three rushing attack at 290 yards/game. Furthermore, nationally, these two teams rank almost equal offensively and defensively. Navy had 605 yards of offense last week and Air Force dominated a tough New Mexico team. In addition, Air Force has a one-point road this year at Tennessee and a great road win at Wyoming while Navy has a one-point loss to Tulsa and dominating wins over Connecticut and Stanford. Edge goes to Air Force. Coach Fisher DeBerry will have the revamped Falcons ready for this one and will not go out losing 4 in a row to Navy.
Oklahoma (+5) over Texas: The Red River Shootout….drink it in, it always goes down smooth. Texas QB Colt McCoy (RFr.) probably does not know that Vince Young was 8-23 for 86 yards in his team’s 12-0 loss in his first game vs. OU. What he does know is that Oklahoma is a veteran team and ranks #8 nationally defensively. OU QB Paul Thompson is playing better than expected and is averaging 233 yards/game with only 3 INT’s. However, the game is going to be decided when the Texas rush D (only 37 rushing yards/game) lines up against RB Adrian Peterson. OU is statiscally better on both sides and you have to love Stoops (5-1 straight up) vs. a Texas team minus Vince Young.
Texas Tech (-4) over Missouri: Missouri QB Chase Daniel is starting his first road game in the Big 12 and the Tigers have lost their last 4 road games ATS. Despite beating Colorado last week, Missouri and RB Tony Temple were outrushed 183-100. This is Homecoming for Texas Tech as they come off a big win last week at Texas A&M. QB Graham Harrell has 15 TD’s to only 2 INT’s and has a 67% completion percentage and now has Jarrett Hicks back to add to his arsenal. Missouri has the 83rd ranked pass efficiency defense in the country and will show that they are a bit overrated.
UCLA (-12.5) over Arizona: Do you think UCLA might remember their 52-14 loss last season to Arizona? At the time, UCLA was #7. Arizona has played a ridiculous schedule thus far against teams such as LSU, USC, BYU, and Washington. In fact, the Wildcats have scored 60 points all season. Arizona had a players-only meeting this week, in which more people were thrown under the bus than a Mel Gibson apology. UCLA QB Ben Olson is averaging almost 200 yards/game and his team is fresh off a 31-0 win over Stanford. Although Arizona has a very physical and speedy defense, I believe the brutal schedule is going to begin to take its toll on the Wildcats as they must travel into Pasadena. In addition, UCLA has not last back-to-back games to Arizona since the late 80’s.
Vanderbilt (-1) over Ole Miss: Last week Ole Miss stepped up to coach Orgeron’s challenge as they played Georgia down to wire in a 14-9 home loss. Starting RB BenJarvus Green-Ellis rushed for 135 yards in that loss, but Ole Miss QB Brent Schaeffer struggled yet again. Vanderbilt looked strong last week as they throttled Temple 43-14 and were lead by mobile QB Chris Nickson who already has 3 rushing TDs and 236 rushing yards. Vanderbilt has two great receivers that are averaging over 12 yards/catch and have a great running back in Cassen Jackson-Garrison, who had 142 yards last week. Although the visitor has lost 5 straight here, the visitor is 8-3-1 ATS and Vandy is 6-0-1 ATS the last 7 vs. Ole Miss.
Oklahoma State (-2.5) over Kansas State: Kansas State is coming off a conference opening loss, after falling to Baylor 17-3. And the good news, gets better for KSU fans, as Josh Freeman sent me text message this week indicating he was all set to start. Although I would love to be in Manhattan to witness his first start, I had to reply, “Don’t call. We’re not coming.” Seriously though, OSU brings in a wealth of talent with QB Bobby Reid averaging over 200 yards/game and completing 56% of his passes. In addition to Reid, the Cowboys have maybe the best receiver in the Big 12 in Adarius Bowman who is gaining over 25 yards a catch, and a great RB in Mike Hamilton who is picking up over 6 yards/carry. I’m saddling up with the Cowboys in this one.
California vs. Oregon UNDER 60.5 total points: This could be the most entertaining game of the day as these teams possess two of the most explosive offenses in the country. However, look for both teams to establish the run with two of the best RBs in the country in Cal’s Marshawn Lynch and Oregon’s Jonathan Stewart. Both defenses possess just enough talent to keep the RB’s in check, and Oregon coach Mike Bellotti will want to keep this one close on the road. Look for the clock to be rolling and Cal to win in a close one. I know I have been on Cal’s bandwagon ever since that loss to Tennessee, but this is their most important game to date and look for the winner to dethrone USC for a Rose Bowl bid.
Ball State (-4) over Buffalo - While Ball State inexplicably lost at home to North Dakota State two weeks ago, they find themselves playing on the road Saturday at Buffalo in their only winnable game in the next 3 weeks. The Cardinals have been able put up points against weak MAC defenses and Buffalo has lost 6 straight homecoming games. This one will be close at the half with Ball St. pulling away in the 4th quarter for an easy cover.
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