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Thursday, September 25, 2008

Take the Double Extra Points

Week 5

Last Week: 7-3 ATS
Season: 25-14-1 ATS (64%)
DXLock: 3-1 ATS

So far, so good. After Week 4, we are sitting a pretty sultry 64% Against The Spread for the year with our weekly lock at 3-1 ATS. Unfortunately, the DXLock missed last week with Rutgers losing outright to Navy. Fortunately, odds are it hits this week. Grab your pen, paper, and hand lotion. If you like making money, this is probably for you.


4* CENTRAL MICHIGAN (-6) over Buffalo: Before we get to the picks, I'd like to remind Dr. D that T. Rose is on a 6-0 run and looking to sweep the board for the 3rd straight week. Might want to lay down some cash on these picks, er, locks. Central Michigan is off a heartbreaking last minute loss at Purdue last week while Buffalo lost to Missouri in a game that was nowhere near as close as the final score might suggest. Turner Gill's D gave up almost 600 yards to one of the Chases and were outgained by over 300 yards. Meanwhile, the Chippewas controlled every facet of the game against Purdue, yet came up short giving up a 40-yard TD run with just over a minute left. CMU has covered 7 of their last 8 MAC home games and we call for a dominating win with a bye week on deck.

3* OKLAHOMA (-17.5) over Texas Christian: If you don't think Bob Stoops has this game circled on his calendar then I have a portfolio of booming investment bank stocks to sell you. The contributors to this blog may have trouble recalling any Saturday in the last 4 years, but the Sooners have not forgotten the beating they took in their 2005 home opener. TCU embarrassed the Sooners in Norman as a 25-point underdog (sound familiar Sun Devil fans?) 17-10 in a game that really wasn't that close. With Baylor on deck, the Oklahoma will look to score early and often and we call for a 21 point lead at the half. Although the Horned Frogs have covered 6 out of their last 7, the Sooner offense is hotter than Google searches for Kelly Carrington (go to her home page after reading this) and this one has blowout written all over it.

2* Kent State (+18) over BALL STATE: The first thing all of us at DXP wish to say regarding this game is that our thoughts and prayers are with Dante Love and his family as we hope for a full recovery from a spinal cord injury he sustained in last week's blowout win at Indiana. Husker fans everywhere can attest to Dante's playmaking abilities as Ball State nearly pulled the upset last year in Lincoln, due in large part to big-time plays he made throughout the game. We hear he was an equally gifted player off the field. That said, the spread on this game is simply too big. Although Kent has looked terrible in the second half of every game this season and finished last season with 6 straight conference losses (each by less than 11 points), they return 16 starters and have the talent on both sides of the ball to keep this one closer than Vegas thinks.


4* DUKE (-7) over Virginia: Duke coach David Cutcliffe (former Ole Miss coach) has the Blue Devils off to a 2-1 start this year. More importantly, he has them undefeated vs. the spread with the help of QB Thaddeus Lewis who is the ACC's second leading passer with 238 yards/game, 5 TDs, and 0 INTs. Duke's only loss this year came at Northwestern where they outgained the Wildcats by almost 150 yards and had a 29-14 first down advantage. Virginia's offense has been worse than DXP's offense at Barry's around 11 p.m. with a dance floor full of cougars. Al Groh has the Cavaliers averaging 233 total yards/game and they have lost their two FBS games by a combined score of 97-17. Duke will earn their first ACC win in 25 games here at home.

2* MIAMI, FL (-7) over North Carolina: Butch Davis returns back to Miami with a 2-1 Tar Heel team that is loaded with young talent. However, the most important part of that talent was QB TJ Yates who will be out for at least several weeks after injuring his ankle last week that cost UNC a win at home vs. V Tech. In his place, freshman QB Mike Paulus threw 2 INTs and had 23 yards. UNC's win over Rutgers is seeming less and less impressive as Rutgers still has yet to win a game. Miami took out some of their frustration from the Florida loss by destroying Texas A&M and gets to return home where great freshman QB Robert Marve will make his first start. With a defense loaded, and I mean loaded, with future NFL players, the Hurricanes have a big dose of revenge on their minds from last year's loss to UNC.

2* Pittsburgh (-15.5) over SYRACUSE: I'm not going to bore you every week with how bad Syracuse is. However, if you are coach Greg Robinson and your douche of an A.D. (see Dr. Daryl Gross 'the employee of the month') says, "It isn't working out... It's very disappointing … He has some work to do out in front of him," just this week to ESPN, things aren't good. At season's end, Robinson and his one million+ salary will be 8-38 over his four years at Syracuse thanks to Dr. Gross and his brilliant dissertation on how to hire a football coach. Pittsburgh is off a big win over Iowa and watch running back LeSean McCoy have a career day.


3* Michigan State (-8) over INDIANA: After an opening week loss to Cal, the Spartans have won 3 straight behind the nation's second leading rusher Javon Ringer who lit up Notre Dame for 201 yards last week. Meanwhile, Indiana became the first BCS team to lose to Ball State 42-20 last week, although Nebraska tried its best to earn that distinction at home against the same team a year ago. The Hoosiers gave up 224 yards on the ground to Ball State, exposing a weakness the Spartans will be sure to exploit. Expect Ringer to get 35+ carries for the best football team in Michigan (no offense Central Michigan).

2* GEORGIA (-6.5) over Alabama: The Bulldogs made last week's highly anticipated game at Arizona State look easy by more than doubling the total yards put up by the Sun Devils. The Georgia defense was stifling, allowing 4 net rushing yards to ASU after allowing only 18 to S. Carolina. Alabama looked impressive against a rebuilding Arkansas team last week and faces its toughest test of the season in a night game at Athens on Saturday. Georgia's defense will be the difference in this one.

2* IOWA (-8.5) over Northwestern: Outyarding Pitt by over 100 yards last week wasn't enough to get the Hawkeyes and Kirk Ferentz a win. Coming back home against a Wildcat team that squeaked by Ohio a week ago should give Iowa a boost. Ferentz desparately needs wins against the mediocre teams in the Big 10 to continue to justify his $2.7 million annual salary, which makes him the most overpaid person on earth not named Barry Zito. Speaking of giving Iowa a boost...


OHIO STATE (-17) over Minnesota: Buckeye fans prayed. Brutus the Buckeye answered. Brutus granted both Terrelle Pryor and Beanie Wells a start this week. Pryor is off a 4 passing TD game vs. Troy where if he doesn't play the whole second half, they probably lose. Now, with Beanie back to join him, the Buckeyes will be emotionally charged in front of their home crowd. Minnesota is 4-0 this year which can be attributed to a +11 turnover margin against very, very inferior opponents. We have to think Ohio State is itching for a statement game in their Big 10 opener here and should win this game with defense and special teams helping in a big way to cover 17 points.