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Thursday, September 11, 2008

Take the Double Extra Points

Week 3

Last Week: 7-3 ATS
Season: 12-8 ATS (60%)
Double Extra Lock: 2-0 ATS

After we got the always unpredictable week one out of the way, we were able to rebound like Ryan Reynolds going from Alanis Morissette to Scarlet Johanson in week two. Week three should bring similar fortune after our always thorough research and uncanny coin flipping abilities. As always, feel free to leave us any of your picks as we are always looking for free money. Better yet, if you can find just one picture of a good looking Missouri girl please send it.


4* Penn State (-27.5) over SYRACUSE - The Orange head coach Greg Robinson has officially run the program into the ground by compiling a 7-30 record. Their defense (Robinson’s specialty) has allowed an average of 480 yards/game this season to Northwestern and Akron and lost those two games by a combined 40 points. Awful. I’ve been saying this year that the Nittany Lions are the team to beat in the Big 10. After winning their first two games by a combined 111-24, there is little doubt that their new spread offense (loaded with talent at skill positions) is working and will put up as many points as they want against Syracuse’s #116 ranked defense. In case you still aren’t sold, Penn State is 4-0 ATS their last 4 road games where they were a double digit favorite.

3* MISSOURI (-26.5) over Nevada - Last week, Nevada suffered a 35-19 home loss to Texas Tech where Tech QB Graham Harrell was 19/46 with 2 INTs. According to many, Harrell should have been pulled at halftime because he was beyond terrible. Tech still won by 16 and had 421 total yards and an 86 yard punt return. Now, the Wolf Pack get to travel to Columbia and take on WR Jeremy Maclin and more kids named Chase per capita than any other place in the World. Missouri’s offense is averaging 570 ypg and 52 points/game. Missouri’s biggest question mark is obviously their defense as Illinois was able to put up 42 points and now face a formidable offense in Nevada. Something tells me here that defense is going to be the emphasis of this game as the offense can score at will. The Chases should cover this one alone, but I’ll take the Tigers as a whole by 5 touchdowns.

2* CLEMSON (-18) over NC State
- How bad is NC State you ask? No problem, I’ll be happy to answer. Last week, QB Harrison Beck lead the Wolfpack to a 34-24 win at home over William and Mary. In the first week against a fair opponent, NC State lost 34-0 to South Carolina where they mustered up 138 total yards. Clemson has had two weeks now to shake off the embarrassment of the Alabama game and Tommy Bowden will have his team ready as they love to massacre teams they are suppose to beat and have yet another 1-AA team next week. Look for running backs CJ Spiller and James Davis to run wild here in Death Valley in their first conference game.


4* Auburn (-10.5) over MISS ST.
- This is the kind of revenge game that reminds me of the last fight scene in the karate movie Best of the Best, when James Earl Jones has to keep Tommy from killing his North Korean opponent. Don't think the Tigers will forget last year's 19-14 upset, in which they gave Miss. St. 5 turnovers. It's payback time, and the Tigers have been looking forward to this like Dr. D and Indiana freshman orientation. Auburn has won their last three in Starkville, better known to the rest of the world as "God, I'm glad I don't live there," by an average of 30 points. Tuberville is 8-1 against the spread in SEC openers and should continue his dominance in this one.

3* Oregon (-8.5) over PURDON'T - The Ducks have been rolling on offense this year, racking up 1184 yards and 110 points so far this year. Like John Holmes, the Ducks seem to find a hole every time they take the field. Oregon eats up the Little 10 like Joey Chestnut on the 4th, going 5-0 against the spread against the most overrated conference in the country. I wouldn't get too excited about the Boilermakers, unless Lloyd Christmas is buying a round to bury the hatchet. The Ducks should score at least 40 in this one.

2* Arizona (-10.5) over NEW MEXICO - We hit the past two weeks going against New Mexico at home and see no reason to stop now. Mike Stoops will be less than forgiving in this one as his Wildcats were upset last year in Arizona 29-27. The Wildcat offense has looked impressive against pop warner teams this year, but New Mexico's defense should provide a challenge. I'm expecting a close game early before Arizona blows this one open late and Mike Stoops, like Carl Pelini and Tommy Bowden, can keep the dream alive that one day he will be on the same coaching level as his brother.


4* Oregon State (-12.5) over Hawaii – The Beavers have struggled this year losing to Stanford and getting blown out by Penn State last week. Coming home to face Hawaii is like going from Astrophysics and Mandarin Chinese at Harvard to Dr. D’s Marketing 101 at Indiana University. Oregon State’s uncharacteristically weak run defense catches a break this week against a young Warrior team that couldn’t run the ball with Usain Bolt in the backfield. The Warriors return just 8 starters and struggled against I-AA Weber State last week. This one will get ugly as the Beavers take out more frustrations than Mike Tyson at the Bunny Ranch the week after he was paroled.

3* BAYLOR (-1) over Washington State - If any of our loyal DXP readers can explain to us how a team that got blown out 66-3 at home last week and has scored 16 total points in 2 home games this season is even odds in their first road game, then Sammy Vegas has a bottle of ether and a book on how to pick up Freshman at house parties he’ll gladly send you. The Cougar defense is getting ripped apart for 436 yards per game so expect Coach Briles to have the Bears fired up for a winnable non-conference BCS home game. We call for Baylor to improve upon last year’s 3-9 record with 15 starters back, including 9 on offense who are getting accustomed to Coach Briles’ system. Editor's note: *Keep an eye on Baylor's true freshman QB Robert Griffin - remember Oregon's Dennis Dixon?*

2* USC (-10.5) over Ohio State – After my much anticipated trip to the Horseshoe last week to complete an 8-hour fall research project on Optimal Tailgating at Today’s College Campuses, I came away with three observations: (1) Columbus may have the most underrated talent of any college campus in the country, (2) The Herbstreit Steak at Hyde Park Prime Steakhouse is the best gay-sounding meal I’ve ever had, and (3) The 2008 Ohio State Buckeyes are the most overrated college football team I’ve seen since the 2007 Ohio State Buckeyes. It wasn’t so much that they couldn’t run the ball, pass the ball, or stop Boo Jackson from escaping the pocket on every 3rd down, it was that Ohio seemingly had at least 3 defenders swarming Buckeye ball carriers and QBs the entire game. Just like I told the 20 Buckeye fans who I was trying to high-five after Ohio went up 14-6, “Hey Dad, I can’t see real well, is that little Rey Maualuga and Brian Cushing over there?” This game will not be close.


VANDERBILT (-7 ) over Rice - The Commodores are off to an impressive 2-0 start with wins at Miami (OH) and at home against South Carolina. Vanderbilt has the one of the best players in college football you've probably never heard of in D.J. Moore, who is a cornerback, receiver, and special teams gamebreaker. Vanderbilt's offense plays mistake free with veteran QB Chris Nickson who gets to face the #116 ranked pass defense this week in Rice. Talk about your all time luck, Rice scored two touchdowns in the last minute against Memphis last week to win by 7 and thus is getting way too much credit here. Remember that Rice has not only lost their last 13 games to BCS schools, but they lost those games by an average of over 32 points/game.