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Wednesday, September 03, 2008

Take the Double Extra Points

WEEK 2

Season: 5-5 ATS

Last week we were able to rebound during the day and eventually come out even, which isn't terrible but could be much, much better. After a week under our belt, we feel more confident this week than A. Rose sitting front row at 'The Night Before' with a stack of 5 one dollar bills. With Timmy Rose picking up most of the slack last week by going 2-1, he gets first crack this week.

TIMMY ROSE

4* ARIZONA STATE (-14) over Stanford: The Sun Devils rolled up the Stanford 41-3 last year, a game which won me 10 lap dances at Spearmint Rhino in Vegas. While Jim Harbaugh's Cardinal are much better than last year's version, I ask you: Are they within 14 points against a team that has blown them out 2 years in a row and playing on the road? We're betting that the defense gives up even more than the 404 passing yards they surrendered to Oregon State last week.

4* PITT (-12.5) over Buffalo: Quiz time: Who would have been a bigger Steve Pederson disaster? Bill Callahan or Dave Wannstedt? We will never know how Pederson's first choice would have turned out in Lincoln, but it's fair to say AD Pederson may be cashing unemployment checks with another former NFL coach by January. That said, the spread on this game would have been 21 in the preseason. We're getting great value here based on last week's results and think Pitt will hold Buffalo to less than 14 while keeping the starters in the whole game.

3* MICHIGAN (-14) over Miami (OH): Michigan has beaten Miami 4 straight times by over 30 points per game. We're turning on the Redhawks faster than a A. Rose's head after he walks past Keeley Hazell (if you don't know her, utilize google and make sure your wife or girlfriend will not be home for at least 15 minutes) after they cost me my only loss last week.

SAMMY VEGAS

4* PENN ST (-15) over Oregon State: Here's a nice little nugget: Penn State has won their last 12 non-conference home games by over 29 ppg. Penn State has one of the best offensive lines in the NCAA that allowed the Lions to rack up 335 yards on the ground last week along with 29 first downs. Oregon State, who had to replace its entire front 7 from last year's team, is coming off a tough loss to Stanford and now must make the LONG, LONG trek cross-country to a hostile environment. Oregon State is the only non-conference bowl team from 2007 the Nittany Lions play this year so expect them to be ready.

3* OKLAHOMA (-22) over Cincinnati: The Bearcats better be ready to run faster than Usain Bolt on steroids. With All-American QB Sam Bradford both throwing the ball to WRs Joaquin Iglesias and Manuel Johnson and handing the ball to RBs DeMarco Murray and Chris Brown, it spells out a recipe for disaster for any defense. Sprinkle in Oklahoma's #3 ranked defense vs. Cincinnati's #67 ranked offense and it's not going to be hard to figure this game out. The Sooners are probably headed the National Championship game this year and don't expect them to slip up in the slighest to a team like Cincinnati.

3* California (-13.5) over WASHINGTON STATE: Cal was fortunate last week to hold on to a 38-31 win over Michigan State. Washington State and their new spread offense had a dismal home loss to the vaunted Oklahoma State defense in which they had 196 total yards (that was an Okie State defense without Tatum Bell - the team's leader in fumble recoveries this season). Cal was suppose to have a rebuilding year. However, behind super sophomore QB Kevin Riley and behind two 100 yard rushing performances from backs Javhid Best (sophomore) and Shane Vareen (freshman), the rest of the PAC 10 better take notice.

A. ROSE

4* Texas A&M (-2.5) over NEW MEXICO: Mike Sherman's opening week 18-14 loss to powerhouse Arkansas State couldn't have been any more embarrassing, unless, say, after he was picked as a vice presidential candidate a photo surfaced of him dressed in a red, white, and blue bikini holding a rifle and at the same time his underage daughter got knocked up in some remote place like Alaska. Yeah right, what are the odds of that happening in this day and age? A&M took a 14-3 lead and, like Briana Banks on a movie set, completely blew it. But last week, New Mexico only managed 186 total yards with QB's going 7 of 23 for 130 yards and 2 INTs, while allowing TCU to deliver a DXP cover in a 26-3 win. A&M recovers and former NU coaches Buddy Wyatt and Randy Jordan can put the well travelled "for sale" signs in the lawn back in storage.


3* OKIE STATE (-15.5) over Houston: Last week, the Cowboy defense was less forgiving than Keyser Soze on a Hungarian mobster. The Pokes held Wash St to 82 yards passing and 196 total yards in a 39-13 victory. Houston crushed Southern last week, but this isn't the Bayou Classic against Grambling. If you thought Mike Gundy was a man at 40, just wait 'til you see what the 41 year-old version can do. This is a must win game for OSU, and with depth at QB, RB, and WR, they should be scoring as often as David Beckham at an Oxford sorority. Jeffie's adopted team takes a Nicky Santoro beating in this one, while Boone Pickens watches from his solid gold suite, which makes me wonder why our local billionaire doesn't open up his wallet? Come on Warren, if you're reading this don't make Tom Osborne feel like Eddie asking Clark if he can "spare a little" in Vacation.

2* WAKE FOREST (-8) over Ole Miss: Both of these teams made last week's victories look easier than Indiana sorority girls getting A's in Dr. D's Marketing 101 class, albeit against Baylor and Memphis. With Richmond hosting a NASCAR race on Saturday night, expect few Ole Miss supporters in town. A stout Wake defense should be the difference, as Ole Miss is still learning how to underachieve under new coach Houston Nutt. Wake wins this one, becomes the new ACC favorite, and football fans wonder what Jim Grobe could do if he coached at a school with an enrollment bigger than Omaha Skutt's senior class.

DOUBLE EXTRA LOCK

IOWA STATE (-7) over Kent State: Last week, our Double Extra Lock hit with Missouri. This week it's a huge revenge game at home for Iowa State who was embarrassed last year vs. Kent. Chizek has the Cyclones confident as they have won 3 of the last 4 games straight up and are 4-1 ATS last 5.

GO BIG RED!!!