Last Week: 6-3-1 ATS
Season: 18-11-1 ATS (62%)
Double Extra Lock: 3-0 ATS
After coming off another strong week, it is time to give credit where credit is due. An extra special thanks needs to go out to all of the lovely college coeds that motivate us to do this every week. It's great how college football, girls, and gambling can make a better threesome than Matt Dillon, Denise Richards, and Neve Campbell in 'Wild Things.'
SAMMY VEGAS
4* ARKANSAS STATE (-5) over Middle Tennessee State: Don't be fooled by past success as the ASU Red Wolves are legit this year. While averaging 511 yards/game on offense, they won at Texas A&M, scored 83 points on Texas Southern, and lost by a field goal at Southern Miss. QB Corey Leonard has 645 yards with 7 TDs/1 INT to go along with RBs Arnold and Lawson who each have over 300 yards rushing this year with an 8 ypc and 10 ypc average respectively. MTSU is also off to a good start with close losses to Troy and Kentucky and a win over Maryland. However (as the great Stephen A. would say), MTSU doesn't practice running the ball or stopping it. They average 2.0 yards/rush (70 per game) as a team and give up 4.5 yards/rush. ASU averages almost 7.5 yards/rush as a team and give up 3.0 yards/rush. Stats + veteran QB + conference opener + night game with drunk fans = Arkansas State by 2 touchdowns.
2* PENN STATE (-28) over Temple: Strike the iron while it's hot and Penn State is hot. The Nittany Lions have now outscored their opponents this year 166-37 behind QB Daryll Clark. Amazingly, Penn State is averaging 273 yards passing/game and 263 yards rushing/game. Their defense is allowing a measly 250 total yards/game (64 rush yards/game), most of which have come in clean up duties. Temple is off two straight losses - one in OT and one on a Hail Mary - and now get to travel to Happy Valley. In three games this year, Temple has yet to gain more yards than their opponent. There will be a week this year that Penn State won't cover, but it's not going to be this one.
2* INDIANA (-3) over Ball State: Although the suspension of Indiana QB Kellen Lewis last spring was thought to be permanent, somehow coach Bill Lynch found it in his heart to reinstate the best dual-threat QB in the Big 10 that even Rich Rodriguez would give his left and right nut for right about now. In their two blowout wins this year, Lewis has completed 67% of his passes and rushed for 183 yards. QB Nate Davis, who Husker fans remember well, has lit it up this year for Ball State with 305 yards/game and 9 TDs. However, defense will be the big difference here as Indiana gives up 215 yards/game to Ball State's 385 yards/game. Since this is a night game, keep your eyes glued on your television for a drunk professor (Dr. D) serving rohypnol collata's outside Nick's Bar to every IU co-ed with a valid fake i.d.TIMMY ROSE
3* GEORGIA TECH (-7.5) over Miss St: Very few games jump off my laminated betting sheet this week, but I do like going against terrible offenses (see USC pick from last week). Miss St is averaging a meager 115 rushing yards per game and under 300 total yards per game. Last week, their offense put up just 116 total yards and was shut out against Auburn with the defense getting credit for the lone points. The Bulldogs do have a strong D with 8 starters returning, but must prepare for Paul Johnson's triple option and endless motion a week after Auburn's no-huddle spread offense. Georgia Tech returns just 9 starters from last year, but have a bye, Duke, and Gardner-Webb on deck and will be fired up for this SEC match-up. The Yellow Jackets get two 4th quarter scores to cover in a low-scoring affair.
3* STANFORD (-9) over San Jose St: Two weeks ago, we loaded up on Arizona State against Jim Harbaugh's group as we felt we were getting terrific line value at home against a team that ASU hammered by 38 last year. It's deja vu here at DXP as Stanford is giving up single-digit points against a team they blew out 37-0 a year ago giving up less than 200 yards of total offense. Stanford is off of a tough road trip at TCU where the game time was moved and the offense failed to even show up as they generated just 193 total yards. The Spartans looked good in a win over San Diego St, but face a much tougher defense this week. With road trips at Washington and Notre Dame on deck, we call for Harbaugh to have the Cardinal prepared for what could be their last winnable game until November.
2* TOLEDO (+7) over Fresno St: Following last week's heartbreaking loss, the Bulldogs should be more letdown than than A. Rose walking into 20's on a Friday night only to find the 'B' team working. This is Toledo's home opener and they are off an impressive 24-point road win, albeit at E. Michigan. Coach Amstutz is big on non-conference games as they have beaten both Pitt and Kansas at home in the last 5 years. Fresno State has UCLA on deck and we call for the Bulldogs to sleepwalk through 3 quarters and barely pull out a tougher than expected road win.
A. ROSE
3* Florida (-7.5) over TENNESSEE: I know what you're asking yourself: hasn't he learned his lesson on taking road favorites in the SEC after Auburn last week? The answer is 'kind of.' I'll admit, a monkey throwing darts could not have done any worse than my 0 for 3 performance a week ago. The Gators have had two weeks to prepare for this one and looked impressive in a win against Miami. The Volunteers lost a heartbreaker to UCLA in the opening week; a loss that looks embarassing after Skippy's Bruin team was humiliated 59-0 by the vaunted BYU Cougars last weekend. Don't expect the Gators to be intimated when Smokey, the 12-year old, flea-invested Bluetick Coonhound leads the Volunteers onto the field. Do expect the dog to get into the end zone more than the players as Florida's defense dominates.
2* Miami (-2.5) over TEXAS A&M: An up and coming Hurricane team goes on the road this week to face the worst team in the Big 12 South (yes, Baylor is better), and is only giving up 2.5? If last year's game between these two was any indication, the Aggies will need a 13th man to score some points on offense. This year's Miami team has more experience, more talent, and has a game against Florida under their belt, while A&M has a win over New Mexico (DXP cover) and a loss to Ark. St. Any BCS school that loses to Ark. St. at home is looking at a brutal year. The Aggies will have to wait for until Army next week for their first home win of the season.
2* Utah (-8) over AIR FORCE: The Utes have dreams of crashing the BCS party again. A possible season ending game against the BYU Cougars should decide which undefeated team gets to throw a sparkling grape juice party that ends at 9:30pm with no one getting laid but 18 girls getting pregnant. Air Force will run the ball 78 times in this one against a solid Utah run defense that held Michigan to 36 yards on 25 carries. I'm guessing Michigan's O-Line outweighs Air Force's by 30 lbs a man, giving me plenty of confidence Air Force will have problems. Look for the Utes to win big and 21 year-old students to bring all 4 of their kids to the Kool-Aid tailgate at the local Chucky Cheese in Salt Lake City.
DOUBLE EXTRA LOCK
Rutgers (-6) over NAVY: The DXLock hits the road this week with Rutgers who needs to get out of New Jersey worse than Vito Spatafore did in the final season of 'The Sopranos' after he was outed. After losing to Fresno and North Carolina at home, Rutgers gets to take on a Paul Johnson-less Navy team that is allowing almost 9 yards per pass attempt this year against Towson(W), Ball State(L), and Duke(L). Navy can still run the ball, however, as they are averaging almost 370 yards/game with Shun White. Rutgers has owned Navy in the past (6-1) and has held Navy to only 190 yards/game the last 3 years. Rutgers QB Mike Teel and WR Tiquan Underwood will break out of their slump here against a team allowing 325 passing yards/game as Rutgers desperately needs a win before Big East play starts. 
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