Last Week: 3-7 ATS
Season: 28-21-1 ATS (57%)
DXLock: 3-2 ATS
What a debacle last week was. Minnesota scoring a 22 yard TD on 4th and 14 with one minute to play in the 4th quarter sums up our day here.
Florida (-23) over ARKANSAS: After last week's home loss to Ole Miss where Florida had a 24-10 first down advantage and more than 150 total yards, it was ultimately the 3 TO's and a blocked extra point that did them in. Arkansas' defense is allowing 10 more yards than their offense is gaining - not going to win games. QB Casey Dick is completing just over 58% of his passes with 5 TD/4INTs under Petrino's new offense. Florida has LSU on deck so they might be looking for a minute or two here. Arkansas has Auburn on deck and Florida is the the 3rd straight top 10 team they have played (Texas, Alabama) so expect them to be more beat up by the second half than a Dennis Northcutt girlfriend on a Friday night at Denny's in Hollywood.
Auburn (-3.5) over VANDERBILT: "Gameday" arrives in Nashville for the first time ever for this Saturday night Top 25 matchup. Anyone that has been following this blog this season knows that I am a huge D.J. Moore fan (cornerback, reciever, and special teams kick returner) of the Commodores. However, without his help, they won't win. In fact, Vandy has been outgained heavily in wins this year by Ole Miss, South Carolina, and Rice. They're wins have come by defense and special teams. Vandy's pass offense ranks 116th (80.8 yards/game) nationally. Auburn gives up 264 total yards/defensively. Auburn's new 'War Eagle Offense' (now only two weeks old) should provide enough here as the home field advantage wears off by the second quarter.
MISSISSIPPI (-2) over South Carolina: I know Ole Miss coach Houston Nutt isn't thought of very fondly in Nebraska, but you have to admit, he can coach a little. With Texas transfer QB Jevan Snead, the Rebels have been averaging 30 points/ game with over 220 yards/game passing to go along with 180 yards/game rushing. South Carolina's offense has been struggling thanks to Spurrier's indecision about a quarterback. However, both of these teams should and could be undefeated right now. Mississippi's (besides beating Florida) two losses have come at Wake Forest and at Vandy where they outgained both teams and had both teams beat until 4th quarter rallies. USC's two losses are at home to Georgia and at Vandy. Until USC gets a more consistent offense, they will continue to struggle on the road.
MICHIGAN STATE (-7) over Iowa - Do you really need a reason to bet against Iowa? This could be the worst team in the Big 10 and that's saying something. After taking this group of perennial underachievers last week to cover at home against Northwestern, it's time to reverse ship and recognize just how bad this team really is. Good thing the casino revenue is bringing in the tax dollars to pay Kirk Ferentz his $3 mil a year. No one else on this planet could make the $18 mil the Dodgers are paying Andruw Jones look like a bargain. I'm going with Javon Ringer to rush 45 times for 250 yards in another Michigan State win.
WEST VIRGINIA (-13.5) over Rutgers - Anyone else think Greg Schiano wishes he would have taken that Miami job? I'm guessing he regrets that decision like an Indiana sorority pledge sitting next to Dr. D at Nick's Pub on a Saturday night and forgetting to put a coaster over her drink before going to the bathroom. Just like the rohypnol, the novelty of a Rutgers football team that can win games has finally worn off. With an injured thumb, Pat White will combine with Noel Divine to run for about 300 yards and deliver another crushing loss to the Scarlet Knights.
Maryland (-13.5) over VIRGINIA - Duke beat Virgina by 28 points last week after UConn beat the Cavaliers by 35 the week before, yet somehow the Terrapins are favored by only 13.5. Instead of trying to figure out how this spread makes any sense, I recommend throwing down at least the amount of money you lost when your stock broker picked up "cheap" shares of AIG at $22 and loading up on Maryland. Al Groh has done everything possible to make Greg Robinson look like Bill Belichek this year with a team that should lose each remaining game on its schedule. When you bet this game, just remember you're not betting on Maryland. You're betting against Virgina.
WESTERN MICHIGAN (-6.5) over OHIO - If you've been betting against Frank Solich's Bobcats this season, then you've probably lost more money than I did at Spearmint Rhino last weekend. However, this week they are in tough spot against the Broncos as they have not won in Kalamazoo in 10 years and face a tough W. Michigan defense that returns 10 starters and has only given up 10 points in the last 2 games combined. We like W. Michigan to win the MAC this week and feel we are getting good line value here.
FRESNO STATE (-21) over Hawaii - Have we mentioned how bad Hawaii is this year? This game will get ugly early. We had an easy winner earlier in the year taking Oregon State over Hawaii and we'll go against them again on the mainland here.
TENNESSEE (-16) over Northern Illinois- The only coaches that need a win more than Phil Fulmer are Greg Robinson and Tyrone Willingham. Tennessee is at Georgia next week and need some confidence heading into that game. We think Fulmer will try to score early and often in this one and although the Huskies are 3-0 against the spread this year, we hate to go against SEC girls that look like this.
DOUBLE EXTRA LOCK
MICHIGAN (-2) over Illinois: Michigan was able to rebound off of 5 1st half turnovers and 21 1st half total yards to defeat Wisconsin last week in Ann Arbor. Illinois is off a loss at Happy Valley where star running back Daniel Dufrene injured his shoulder and is questionable for Saturday's game. The problem (even before the injury) is that Michigan's run defense is allowing only 88 yards/game rushing this season. Juice Williams will be all Illinois has this week. To make things worse, Illinois' defense is giving up 33 points/game to go along with 384 total/yards/game.