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Monday, January 05, 2009

Take the Double Extra Points: Bowl Extravaganza Part 5

Bowl Season: 15-12 ATS (56%)
Double Extra Lock: 8-3 ATS (73%) - Regular Season; 4-1 ATS (80%) - Bowl Season

Tostitos Fiesta
Ohio State vs. Texas ( Glendale, AZ)
University of Phoenix Stadium, Jan. 5, 2009, 8 p.m. EST, FOX

Ohio State (+9) over Texas - The Big 12 South has thus far been a major disappointment in the bowl season. They have looked terrible in both of their bowl games as Oregon and Ole Miss dominated Oklahoma State and Texas Tech. Ohio State brings a defense here that allowed only 1 opponent all year (USC) to score more than 21 points and held 6 opponents to 10 points or less. Texas and Qb Colt McCoy scored more than 28 points in every game this season and more than 42 points in 8 games. When I look back at what Ok. State RB Kendall Hunter did to the Texas run defense, I can't help but think Qb Terrelle Pryor and Rb Beanie Wells won't have at least some success running around Texas's defensive front. Whenever you have a great defense matched up a great offense, always side with the better defense - especially when they are spotted 9 points.

Ball State vs. Tulsa (Mobile, AL)
Ladd-Peebles Stadium, Jan. 6, 2009, 8 p.m. EST, ESPN

Ball State (+3) over Tulsa - This game features 2 of the best QBs (statistically speaking) in the NCAA. Tulsa's David Johnson threw for 3,866 yards with 43 TDs and 18 INTs while Ball State's Nate Davis threw for 3,446 yards with 26 TDs and only 7 INTs. The big advantage that Ball State brings to this one is RB Miquale Lewis, the leading rusher in the MAC, who rushed for 1,701 yards and 22 TDs on the season. Both teams are off bad losses at their respective conference championship games where both teams played awful. Ball State somehow let Turner Gill's Buffalo Bulls steal away the MAC Championship and Tulsa's David Johnson threw 5 INTs vs. East Carolina. Go with the more talented Cardinals as RB Lewis will be the difference here if Ball State gets up early in this shootout.

Double Extra Lock

FedEx BCS Championship Game
Florida vs. Texas (Miami, FL)
Dolphin Stadium, January 8, 2009, 8 p.m. EST, FOX

Florida (-3.5) over Oklahoma - To better understand Oklahoma's defensive struggles this season, read here. Florida holds the defensive advantage here and it's not even close. Despite Florida's difficult schedule, the Gator defense ranks 8th in total defense, 4th in scoring defense, and 2nd in pass efficiency defense while the Gator offense ranks 17th in total offense and 3rd in scoring offense. Although Oklahoma brings in the nation's #1 offense, their defense has been suspect. The Sooner defense ranks 63rd in total defense and 58th in scoring defense as they have given up more than 26 points to 7 opponents. Since Florida' loss to Ole Miss, the Gators have rolled off 9 straight games and went 8-0 ATS winning by an average of 49-13 even without Percy Harvin for much of that time and who is somewhat questionable for this one. Florida and Urban Meyer's dominance in college football continues in a big way here as they make it their 2nd championship in the the last 3 years.

Florida 48 Oklahoma 30

(Same shirt, Erin?)