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Friday, November 14, 2008

Take the Double Extra Points

Season: 49-38-1 ATS (56%)
Double Extra Lock: 8-2 ATS (80%)

If you haven't been taking the DXP lock on a weekly basis, then you've been costing yourself more money than the weekly unemployment benefit that 60,000 Citibank employees will soon get. Do yourself a favor and start saving for the recession courtesy of Sammy Vegas and T. Rose. It may be the last 'no money down' investment you'll ever be able to make again. We have no idea where the cheerleader pictured above came from but have a sneaking suspicion that BJU is somewhere in Van Nuys, CA. Let's get right down the the picks.

Sammy Vegas

Cincinnati (-3.5) over LOUISVILLE (Friday Night)
- "The Battle for the Keg of Nails" - Louisville has beaten Cincinnati 9 of the past 10 times including the last two times by a combined 10 points. Louisville has lost their last two games, one to Syracuse and another at Pittsburgh, in ugly fashion and look to get back on track here as there are still bowl hopes. Cincinnati is back in the Top 25 after wins over South Florida and West Virginia the past two weeks. The Bearcats sit in a three way tie for first in the Big East and should break through their losing ways with the Cardinals here and set up a showdown next week vs. Pitt for their first BCS berth.

Ohio State (-9) over ILLINOIS - After throttling Northwestern last weekend 45-10, OSU looks like a different team than at the beginning of year. Terrelle Pryor continues to get better each week and his passing has far exceeded everyone's expectations (65% completion percentage and 8/3 Td/Int). Beanie Wells is 100% again and OSU's defense is allowing a measly 268 yards/game this season. Illinois is off an upset loss at Western Michigan where QB Juice Williams threw multiple INTs for the 3rd straight game while the Illini rushing offense struggled again - 88 yards/game the last 3. If Northwestern was 35 points worse than Ohio State last weekend, then what is Illinois?

KENTUCKY (-3.5) over Vanderbilt - Here we are again with Vanderbilt, aka as the DXP darlings. Whether they are winning or losing games ATS, they always seem to show up here at just the right time. After winning their first 5 games, we said they wouldn't win another game this year. So, let me explain to you why they haven't won a game since October 4th - they have NO offense. None. They haven't scored more than 14 points as a team since September 20th and they rank 118th in Division 1 in total yards. A win here at home for Kentucky locks them into a bowl game and be sure to keep an eye on freshman future star QB Randall Cobb. Cobb is a dual threat QB who will be getting his first career start at QB this week - not that it matters where he plays. In fact, check out these numbers for the season for the true freshman: 375 yards passing (2 TD), 222 yards rushing (6 TD), and 197 yards receiving (2 TD) - and he sat out 3 games with injury.

Georgia (-8.5) over AUBURN - Georgia really is not in a very good spot here with their 4th straight road game and a closer than expected win against a tough Kentucky team last week. Auburn continues to struggle offensively as they rank 99th in total yards and 107th in points scored this season under a new spread offense minus the athletes to fit the spread. Before last week's home win vs. UT-Martin, Auburn lost 4 consecutive SEC games and now gets to take on a healthy Matthew Stafford and Knowshon Moreno who should supply more than enough offensive to get this one covered early. With two games left, Georgia will be focused here as they still have the BCS well in their sights.

T. Rose

Cal (+3.5) over OREGON ST - I was more off the mark last weekend on my UCLA over Oregon St pick than Dr. D at the college bars in Bloomington. We?ll go against the Beavers once again as Cal comes into town fresh off of a 17-3 loss on the road to USC, where the defense played surprisingly well but the offense was only able to generate 165 total yards. Cal's defense has looked great at times this year and has given up 20 or fewer points in 6 or the last 7 games including the each of the last 3. Take the points as Oregon St gets a major step up in competition and almost lost the last time they played at home against a reeling Arizona St squad.

ARIZONA ST(-36.5) over Washington St - Let me get this straight: Washington State is getting 7 points less on the road this week to Arizona State than they were at home last week against Arizona. How is a team that has given up at least 58 points in 4 straight games and 6 times this year getting less than 40 points on the road? The only explanation is Vegas either expects Wash St. to score more than 20 points on an underrated Sun Devil defense or Coach Erickson to take it easy on Washington State since he started his coaching career there and former center, Paul Wulff, is the team's head coach. We?ll bet against Wash St from here on out and expect the author of this pick to have a sore neck after attending ASU's Homecoming game in the student section.

Notre Dame(-4) over NAVY - Last year I said if Notre Dame didn't cover this game, I would stop writing picks on DXP. Luckily for you, I didn't follow through and have been giving away winners for free ever since. This is a huge revenge game from a year ago and Weis takes over the play-calling duties. Last week's shutout loss to BC is somewhat misleading as ND was undone by 4 Jimmy Clausen INTs and the Irish actually outgained BC by almost 50 yards. Both defenses give up less than 133 rushing yards per game, but Notre Dame has faced far superior competition including talented RBs Jevon Ringer and LeSean McCoy. The difference will be Navy's porous pass defense, which is giving up over 250 yards per game. If the Irish don't win by at least a TD, expect a website up by the time the updated AP Top 25 is released.

Double Extra Lock

MICHIGAN(-3.5) over Northwestern - This game is a clear case of two teams headed in different directions. Michigan's defense put together several big plays in a holding Minnesota to 188 total yards in a surprising 29-6 win on the road last week while Northwestern was giving up huge 3rd down plays to Terrelle Pryor and the Ohio State offense in last week's 45-10 loss at home. Northwestern comes into this game with a rash of injuries while Michigan may have found its future QB in Nick Sheridan who played mistake-free football in his first start. This is Michigan's last winnable game of the season as they go on the road to Columbus next Saturday. Expect Coach Rodriquez to have the Wolverines fired up in game that could give Michigan its best momentum all year.