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Friday, November 07, 2008

Take The Double Extra Points (Late Edition)

Season: 46-34-1 ATS (57%)
Double Extra Lock: 7-2 ATS (78%)

After a week of changing diapers and cleaning up puke, I'm back from my week long vacation at Dr. D's house and let me be the first to tell you, the girls at Indiana are waaaay better than I imagined. Thankfully Sammy was able to get my text message with last week's picks which went a phenomenal 5-1 ATS. For some reason the bartender at the Phoenix airport wouldn't take gambling picks in exchange for free beers until my flight, even though last week's picks, er, locks were as good as money. Let's keep rolling with 7 great picks for this week. Call your bookie before we move the spread.

Sammy Vegas

Arkansas State (-3) over FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL - The Red Wolves of Arkansas State hit the road again this week after coming off a blow out loss at Alabama where they didn't put up much of a fight. Sitting at 2-1 in the Sun Belt Conference, ASU still has a chance to win the conference and should have no problem this week. Arkansas State's offense ranks 31st nationally behind a two-headed monster backfield that features two running backs both with over a 6.0 yards/carry average. FIU's defense is allowing almost 400 yards and 30 points/game. Factor in an offense that ranks 117th nationally and you can see why FIU will struggle here against a decent Arkansas State team.

Colorado State (+10.5) over AIR FORCE - Colorado State is coming off a 45-42 loss to BYU in which they gave up a TD with only :22 seconds left in the game. At 4-5, the Rams can become bowl eligible with three very winnable games remaining on the schedule - including this one at Air Force. 10.5 points is way too many for an Air Force team that has a passing game that averages 76 yards/game - 118th nationally - and scores just barely above 25 points/game. In fact, the most points Air Force has scored all year is 35 against D1 opponents and has been out-yarded in 5 of their games. Look for Colorado State to keep this one close and possibly walk out of here with an outright win.

Oklahoma State (+3.5) over TEXAS TECH - If you want an example of a classic 'let down' game, this is it. Oklahoma State has had two weeks to let the wounds from the Texas loss heal. After a slow start last week against Iowa State, the Cowboys finished the game 59 points and 682 yards. Both offenses rank in the Top 7 nationally and both average over 45 points/game. The difference will be Oklahoma State's running game with Kendall Hunter, who is at 1,220 yards on the year including a 161 yard game at Texas. I'd hardly call this an upset if Oklahoma State wins but given the fact that they are getting 3.5 points here makes this an easy call. If Mike Leach can get his Red Raiders as high as they were last week vs. Texas, then give the man a PhD for psychiatry.

T. Rose

Florida (-23.5) over VANDERBILT - According to Vegas, the predicted final on this one will be 36-12. While we agree on the 36 points for Florida, we don't see any chance Vandy puts up more than 10 points. We told you before the Georgia game that Vandy woulnd't win another game all year and we think Florida will have the spread covered by halftime.

RUTGERS (-14) over Syracuse - Rutgers is getting great value here as Syracuse comes in off a big upset of Louisville at home last week. Rutgers comes in off of two impressive wins against Uconn and Pitt. Their defense will be test by a balance Orange attack, but Syracuse has a terrible pass defense that has given up 20 TDs while picking up just 5 INTs. Mike Teel has another big week in a game that's close at the half, but turns ugly by the 4th quarter.

UCLA (+8) over Oregon St - Stump your friends with this bit of useless trivia. Name the only Pac-10 team that Mike Riley has never beat: UCLA. Oregon State has dropped 5 straight to the Bruins. Riley was also 0-4 while a DC at USC working under John Robinson. UCLA won a big DXP lock of the week as a home dog against Stanford two weeks ago and we think they'll easily cover against an overrated Beaver squad that is ripe to be upset.

Double Extra Lock

FLORIDA ST (-4) over Clemson - Even with multiple player suspensions, the Seminoles may have the best offense that the Tigers have seen all year. Clemson is coming a big road win at BC while Florida State is off a disappointing loss at Georgia Tech. The Seminole offense has averaged 33 points in their last 5 games including a 41 point outburst in Miami. FSU is playing for 1st place in the ACC Atlantic division and deep down you know Bobby Bowden would like to run it up against the school that fired his son at mid-season. We'll take the Seminoles to win in a high scoring game.