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Friday, December 05, 2008

Take the Double Extra Points

Season: 52-43-1 ATS (55%)
Double Extra Lock: 8-3 ATS (73%)

After a few weeks on hiatus, we're back for the final weekend of the season. Some great games are on all across the board so study up and pony up tonight on Friday and Saturday if you are in need of some extra cash for Christmas gifts or bar tabs. And of course, we will be doing our 'DXP Bowl Extravaganza' again this year with complete statistical analysis of every game as well as our new game 'watchability index rating' for the non-gamblers which will be done by our one and only game critic, A. Rose.

T. Rose

BALL STATE (-14.5) over Buffalo (Friday night!)- This game reminds me a lot of last year's blowout, easy MAC Championship game winner on Central Michigan. Ball State dominated Turner Gill's Bulls last year winning 49-14. Buffalo had overachieved all year in a weak MAC East division, but their poor rush defense (giving up over 150 yards per game) will get exposed here. Expect Ball State to rack up huge yards on the ground with the MAC's leading rusher in MiQuale Lewis, who is averaging over 130 yards per game and 5.7 yards per carry. Nate Davis doesn't need to do anything special here and this one will get out of hand by the 4th quarter. Anyone remember when Ohio played in the MAC title game two years ago? Expect a similar result.

TULSA (-12.5) over East Carolina - The Golden Hurricane started the season with 4 easy covers and have the second highest scoring offense in the NCAA. The only games the offense has struggled have been away from home. We expect Tulsa to try to make this game a shootout against a solid East Carolina D. Skip Holtz will try to keep the Pirates close in this one, but they simply do not have the firepower on offense to hang with Tulsa as they've only scored over 30 points once all season (last week against UTEP). While ECU has the better defense, we think Tulsa hangs at least 45 and don't see ECU getting enough late points to cover the points.

Sammy Vegas

CALIFORNIA (-34.5) over Washington - The 0-11 Washington Huskies arrive in Berkeley this weekend with a chance to make college football history as the only winless team in the 2008 season. California RB Jahvid Best is healthy again and is off a 200 yard day last week and gets to face a defense allowing 38 points/game and over 440 total yards/game. The Golden Bears have covered 4 of their last 5 including a home win vs. the Oregon Ducks. Although it is Tyrone Willingham's last game as coach, don't expect much of a fight from the Huskies as they will get mauled here by the Bears.

USC (-31) over UCLA - When Pete Carroll declared his Trojans would wear all red jerseys here to restore the tradition of this great rivalry, the NCAA quickly slapped a two timeout penalty on USC (one per half) which should tell you that this game isn't going to be taken lightly. UCLA ranks 116th in rushing offense, 110th in total offense, and 107th in scoring offense. Their mission this week will be trying to put a single point on the board against the Trojans' defense who ranks 1st in total defense (210 yards/game) and 1st in scoring defense (7.8 points/game). In fact, the Trojans have allowed only 22 points in the second half - ALL YEAR! While their offense has had their share of problems this year, they still rank 16th in total offense and should have no problem scoring in this one. Skippy Neuheisal has made the decision to take one timeout in each half to 'make it fair.' If you really want to make it fair, coach, then ask if you can suit up USC's third team and then you might have a game.

Oklahoma (-16.5) over Missouri - The Co-North champs get the task of slowing down the hottest team in the college football right now outside of Florida. In their 4th Big XII Championship game (3-1 overall) at Arrowhead, the Sooners are used to the cold weather this game brings. Missouri's #116th ranked pass defense and #91 ranked total defense is going to get lit up by the Sooners' #1 scoring offense and #3 total offense. Against common opponents (BU, NU, KU, KSU, and OSU), Missouri was 1-5 ATS while Oklahoma went 4-2 ATS. Sam Bradford wins the Heisman here and Oklahoma adds to their 64-24-4 overall record vs. MU(one win for MU since '84). A season that has turned from championship and Heisman talk now could very possibly end with 5 losses. Keep your fingers crossed.

Cincinnati (-7) over HAWAII - How does a trip to Hawaii in December and a BCS bowl game sound to you? I agree. It's good to be Cincinnati right now as they have already secured their most successful season in school history and look here to add win #11. This game would normally would have 'trap' written all over it, but Cincinnati is too good here not to cover the 7 points they are giving to Hawaii. The Bears #17 ranked defense and #3 ranked special teams will be too much for a terrible Hawaii offense that ranks #96 in total offense, #115 in turnovers lost, #117 in sacks allowed, and has a special teams that ranks in at #115. Look for WR Ginyard for the Bearcats to have a big game on both offense and special teams.

Double Extra Lock

Florida (-9.5) over Alabama - If you read this blog every once in awhile, you know we like statistics because numbers don't lie. So here you go. Florida's strength of schedule this season is 20th and Alabama's s.o.s. is 46th. Advantage Florida. Florida's defense is giving up 12.3 points/game and Alabama's defense is giving up 11.5 points/game. Push. Florida's offense averages 457.9 yards/game and Alabama's offense averages 380.3 yards/game. Advantage Florida. Florida is averaging 46.3 points/game and Alabama's is averaging 32.1 points/game. Big advantage Florida. Florida has Heisman Trophy winner Tim Tebow who has 25 passing TDs, 12 rushing TDs, and 2 INTs while Alabama has John Parker Wilson who averages 159 yards passing/game with 9 TDs/5 INTs. Huge advantage Florida. As a team, Florida's offense ranks 2nd, their defense ranks 5th, and special teams ranks 6th while Alabama ranks 21st on offense, 6th on defense, and 47th on special teams. While both programs boast two of the best coaches in college football, Florida's superior talent, speed, and big game experience will be too much for Alabama as they are going to have a tough time putting any offensive touchdowns on the board. If you are waiting for a good SEC title game, then you'll be waiting for next year as our calculator tells us that Florida wins this one big.