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Tuesday, December 23, 2008

Take the Double Extra Points: Bowl Extravaganza Part 2

GSeason: 55-47-1 ATS (54%)
Bowl Season: 2-3 ATS
Double Extra Lock: 9-4 ATS (69%)

There are only two times throughout the year when gamblers should take a leave of absence. One is March Madness and the other being the college football bowl season. To be able to know what type of performance your team is going to give is one of the great mysteries of life. However, we are men, therefore we must gamble.

Just a quick reminder that the ''XtraWatchabilityPoint' for this year's bowl games are now being done by our game critic extraordinaire, A. Rose. The games are ranked in line with the watchability factor of dancers at five Las Vegas area clubs, which all have been thoroughly scouted on official DXP business trips. From worst to first, they are the Glitter Gulch, Cheetah's, Olympic Gardens, Scores, and the Spearmint Rhino. For example, the '06 Texas/USC title game would have been Spearmint Rhino material at 11pm on a Saturday night. You have one eye trained on the girl giving you a lap dance and another on the stage at all times.

December 23 7:00 pm CST ESPN
Boise State (+3) over TCU - One of these defenses has to give. TCU is ranked in the top five in total defense, scoring defense, rushing defense, pass-efficiency defense, sacks, red-zone defense, third-down defense and first downs allowed. Boise is ranked #3 in scoring defense as they have allowed 10 pts or less in 8 games this year. Both offenses have been proficient this year as Boise is 13th and TCU is 29th in total offense. Listen for the guys in the booth to drive home the point that one of TCU's best defensive players, All-MWC LB Robert Henson, can't help when he isn't playing because of academics. If All-WAC QB Kellen Moore can have any success throwing the ball, expect Boise's run game to open up enough to put more points on the board than TCU.

XtraWatchabilityPoint - You and your buddies told yourselves you would wait until the last night to hit up the Spearmint Rhino, but after being in Vegas for 3 hours, you already have the limo ready to roll on a Thursday night. The amount of underrated talent at the Rhino will make your head spin, and you could end up seeing the next Alektra Blue working the pole tonight.


December 24 7:00 pm CST EPSN
Notre Dame (-1) over Hawaii - Notre Dame has lost 9 straight bowl games and a loss here would give Chuck Weis his 2nd losing season in only 4 years. At 7-6, Hawaii defeated New Mexico State, Idaho, and Washington State down the stretch to become bowl eligible. Hawaii's leading rusher is posting a 36 yards/game average this season which is going to make inexperienced QB Greg Alexander beat Notre Dame's talented secondary. Hawaii's defense is bad - 72nd in scoring defense and 63rd in passing defense bad - and will get exposed by QB Jimmy Clausen and his boy toys, WRs Golden Tate and Michael Floyd. I'm pulling for Hawaii as much as the next guy is, but I also realize I have a gambling record that I need to improve.
XtraWatchabilityPoint - Hitting up Cheetah's on a Friday night is almost sure to make you wonder just how good these girls could be with some implants and a little training on the pole. The talent is there, but it's such a waste these girls will never see the big time. Still, there is some entertainment value in watching a hot chick slip and fall on stage multiple times from the10 shots of tequila and not lose her job.


December 26 6:30 pm CST ESPN

C. Michigan (-6.5) over Florida Atlantic - Although Captain Kangaroo is bringing his taunted Owls and his lifetime 5-0 bowl record to this one, Central Michigan really has nothing to fear. I'm pretty sure this game has by far the two worst defenses in bowl game history. Central Michigan sports the 104th ranked defense while Florida Atlantic has the 92nd ranked defense. Beyond atrocious. Therefore, we need to ask which team will score more. Central Michigan has the 13th ranked passing offense and 23rd ranked total offense and is lead by 7th year starting QB Dan LeFevour, who lead the team in rushing and the MAC in total offense. Florida Atlantic is lead by a veteran QB of their own with Rusty Smith, but the offense ranks an abysmal 101st in turnover margin.
XtraWatchabilityPoint- We've all been there. The Glitter Gulch said "no cover" and "1 drink minimum" and you figured even though it's Monday at 11am, you've got nothing better to do, right? Once you see there is a single Filipino girl who can't speak English and only gets an A for cup size, you realize every shred of self-respect you might have had is long gone for watching this pathetic display.

December 27 12:00 pm CST ESPN
W. Virginia (-1) over N. Carolina - Trying to figure what teams will show up here is like trying to figure out what the girl you are hitting on at the bar all night will look like when the lights go on. North Carolina has blow-out wins over Rutgers, Connecticut, Georgia Tech, and Boston College to go along with losses to NC State and Maryland. West Virginia has wins over South Florida, Auburn, Connecticut, and Rutgers to go along with losses to East Carolina and Colorado. Carolina's struggles at the end of the season were clearly the result of losing QB TJ Yates and WR Brandon Tate. The schizophrenic West Virginia offense (65th) is much better than North Carolina (95th) and QB Pat White will lead his senior-laden team in a going away party here.
XtraWatchabilityPoint - An off night at Score's still isn't the worst thing you can watch. There's some underachieving talent and some surprisingly hot girls you never knew existed in the Czech Republic causing you to complete an on-line passport application at 4am and apply for multiple Eastern European visas.

December 27 7:00 pm CST ESPN
Cal (-8) over Miami, FL - Miami is without QB Robert Marve which isn't going to help an offense that can get an average of only 328 total yards/game. Cal RB Jahvid Best is, in my opinion, the best running back in NCAA and it's not close (no offense Shon Greene). Although he was hampered much of the year with injuries, he still managed 8.0 yards/carry and had a whopping 628 yards rushing in his last 3 games. In this game, he gets to face a Miami run defense that is ranked 69th and allowed 256 yards/game in their last 3. Cal's defense, who held Oregon to 16 points and USC to 17 points, is too good to let the struggling Canes' offense score much at all with their 2nd string QB.
XtraWatchabilityPoint - Cheetah's just isn't what it used to be. There's some young starters here that have moved on to the pros in the past, but it's still a rebuilding period. Once the bar tab gets out of hand you won't have a hard time dragging yourself out of this place.

Double Extra Lock

December 27 3:30 pm CST ESPN

Florida State (-5) over Wisconsin -If there is a better coach than Bobby Bowden (19-9-1) when it comes to bowl games, then convince me. Wisconsin, who is 7-5 and finished the season with an overtime win vs. Cal Poly, is overmatched in every area here. RB PJ Hill will be the only weapon Wisconsin will have and unfortunately he gets to face a Florida State defense that is ranked #14 overall and has the #1 third down defense in NCAA. The day isn't going to be any better for Badger QB Dustin Sherer - poster boy for the phrase 'statue in the pocket' - as he boasts a 115 QB rating with 5 TDs/5Ints and a total of 42 rushes for 10 yards on the season. Unfortunately for Wisconsin, you can't coach speed and you might witness the biggest example you'll see this bowl season of just that. Florida State is loaded with talent and their football team is pretty good as well.
XtraWatchabilityPoint - It's USC song girl night at Olympic Gardens. Just like the SDSU girls, the college co-eds from USC are making the 45 minute flight on a weekly basis, only to find a sugar daddy or at least pay the steep tuition bills. You are shocked to find out the payback period for the +2's in this place averages one weekend.